The 2007-2009 Recession is Over

The 2007-2009 Recession is Over

We received this from our broker it is very interesting.

This is the statement this morning from Dennis Gartman, one of America’s leading and respected economists. He was the leading economist that stated in 2007 that America had entered the recession in December, seven months before the Federal Government acknowledged that fact. He is now saying the recession ended in July 2009. He does emphasize that we will have a couple more months of “bad news,” but all indicators are indicating upward movement.

He uses the following indicators:
1. Jobless claims began dropping in March and have dropped each week from 658,000 to the present 584,000.

2. The nation’s unemployment rate dropped in July to 9.4%, a slight decrease from June’s 9.5%, but still an extremely positive sign.
America’s industrial production has now reversed itself and is on the increase again.

3. America’s housing market is now under going dramatic improvement. June 2009 was the best reported month in years, and a similar report is expected for July 2009.

4. America’s home prices are stabilizing in some parts of the country.
Recessions almost always end in July – beginning with the Great Depression of the 1930s that ended in July.

* Dennis Gartman has correctly identified the start and end on America’s recessions for the past 35 years. His expertise is well respected.

On a side note, the major concern for the future will be rising interest rates. The huge issue of debt by our Federal Government is unsustainable and it could force interest rates to rise. The United States experienced the same scenario in the early 1980s recession when the government issued massive debt, and shortly thereafter home loan interest rates jumped from 6% to 14%. All predictions indicate that this recession will not have such a huge spike. Further, there is no change in interest rates expected for the remainder of 2009.

Buyers and sellers need to be aware that the Fall of 2009 is a great time to sell and buy real estate.